A recent study conducted by the Indiana University Kelley School of Business has revealed that Indiana’s population growth is expected to be lower in the next 40 years compared to the growth seen between 2000 and 2010. The state’s natural increase, which is the number of births exceeding deaths, will turn into a natural decrease in the coming decade, with deaths outnumbering births starting in the 2040s. This change is mainly attributed to the aging baby boomer generation.
The study also highlighted concerns about the loss of working-age residents in the next decade, with one in five individuals expected to be older than the traditional retirement age. Indiana will need to attract young people from other states to maintain its workforce and population growth.
Hamilton County, located north of Indianapolis, is projected to see significant population growth, becoming Indiana’s second-largest county by 2050. The Indianapolis metro area is expected to outgrow the state, adding nearly 405,000 residents by 2050.
The study also noted a decline in the number of births in Indiana since 2008, with the state experiencing its third-lowest birth total in 2023 since 1946. Additionally, Indiana’s life expectancy peaked in 2010 and has been declining since then, primarily due to an increase in mortality rates among the working-age population.
Overall, the study suggests that Indiana will need to focus on attracting young residents and addressing the declining birth rates and mortality rates to ensure sustainable population growth in the coming decades.
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