NBC News analyzed demographic groups in various counties based on Census Bureau estimates from 2018 to 2022. For example, Hinds County, Mississippi, has a high percentage of Black residents, while Alameda County, California, has a significant Asian American population. Experts attribute these demographic shifts to turnout and dissatisfaction with the economy, with political science professor Ken Kollman emphasizing the importance of turnout in the results.
There were notable shifts in voting patterns among certain demographics, such as Hispanic and Black men potentially voting more for Trump or not turning out for Harris. Asian American voters in the Northeast and West also shifted towards Trump, with economic concerns playing a role in their voting decisions.
In California, Merced County, which has a large Asian American population, voted for Trump despite supporting Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The county saw a significant shift towards the GOP, partly due to a smaller voter turnout for Harris compared to Biden.
Counties with significant populations of high school diploma-holders and advanced degree recipients also saw shifts in voting patterns, with Trump improving his margin in both categories. In counties with high school graduates, Trump’s vote totals remained steady while Harris underperformed. However, in counties with advanced degree holders, Trump gained votes while Harris lost them. Overall, the analysis highlights the complex factors influencing voting behavior among different demographic groups in various counties.
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